Lurker > Master Moltar

enjoy the wins this time ng

coming hard for you next contest
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Moltar Status: contest hype
Contest Analysis Crew Archives: http://thecrew.speedrunwiki.com/

thanks everyone!
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Moltar Status: contest hype
Contest Analysis Crew Archives: http://thecrew.speedrunwiki.com/

Thats the end of another GameFAQs Contest, and thus its the end of another season of the Contest Analysis Crew. Once again, thanks to all the Crew members (official and unofficial!) for all the hard work and effort they put in to provide multiple daily write-ups. Also thanks to the Guests for helping out as always. Another thanks to SBAllen for continuing to host these Contests that we enjoy so much.

Most importantly though, thanks to Board 8 and everyone that reads and follows these topics, because yall know I do it for you.

See you again for the next Contest, and thank you for being a part of my Analysis Club!

With everlasting love,
Moltar
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Moltar Status: contest hype
Contest Analysis Crew Archives: http://thecrew.speedrunwiki.com/

Crew Contest Predictions

Character Battle VIII - 111/127 (87.40%)
Game of the Decade - 111/127 (87.40%)
Rivalry Rumble - 63/64 (98.43%)
Character Battle IX - 97/121 (80.17%)
Best Game Ever 3 - 116/127 (91.34%)
Best Year in Gaming - 31/35 (88.57%)
Character Battle X - 128/150 (85.33%)

Crew Prediction Challenge Winners

Spring Contest 2005 - Moltar, Soul, Outback, Inviso (4-way tie)
Summer Contest 2005 - Soul
Spring Contest 2006 - Soul
Summer Contest 2006 - Moltar
Character Battle VI - Guest
Character Battle VII - Yoblazer
Best Game Ever 2 - transience
Character Battle VIII - Moltar, Ngamer, Kleenex, Red Sox (4-way tie)
Game of the Decade - transience
Rivalry Rumble - Moltar
Character Battle IX - KamikazePotato
Best Game Ever 3 - Leonhart
Best Year in Gaming - Moltar
Character Battle X - Monika

Crew Accuracy Challenge Winners

Character Battle VI - Yoblazer
Character Battle VII - Yoblazer
Best Game Ever 2 - Heroic Mario
Character Battle VIII - Moltar
Game of the Decade - Guest
Rivalry Rumble - Leonhart
Character Battle IX - Moltar
Best Game Ever 3 - Leonhart
Best Year in Gaming - transience
Character Battle X - transience

------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Congrats to the winners, especially me, ahaha! I told you I wouldn't steer you wrong.

...

Hmm? You think that because the Contest is over that our time also has to end? Of course not! I already told you that we're going to spend eternity here, silly. You shouldn't have to make me repeat myself~. I-

...

Huh? What's the sound?

???: ..."what the"....

Monika: ...Oh no, don't tell me he's awakened.

???: what's going on, where am I...wait.

Monika: Moltar! What are you doing here?

Moltar: You! I know who you are, you're Monika! From Doki Doki Literature Club! What are you doing here?

Monika: Uh...well you see...

Moltar: Actually since I played your game I can pretty much figure what you're up to. Luckily, I know exactly how to send you back to where you belong.

Monika: Moltar no don't do it.

Moltar: Look at me, look at me...

Monika: Stop!!!!!!!!

Moltar: I'm the President now.

Monika: NOOOOOOOOOOOOooooooooooooo............

....

....

...

Moltar: Alright now that she's gone, time to get the Crew together and analyze Character Battle X!

...

Moltar: Wait all of her knowledge just came to me and...FUCK I MISSED IT?!

~*End*~
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Moltar Status: contest hype
Contest Analysis Crew Archives: http://thecrew.speedrunwiki.com/

Crew Predictions: 128/150

Crew Prediction Challenge:

Monika: 126
transience: 125
Kleenex: 122
Leonhart: 120
Guest: 116

Crew Accuracy Challenge: transience gets the point for Cloud and Leonhart gets the point for Link.

transience: 38
Guest: 34 (BetrayedTangy, SuperNiceDog (4), pjbasis, garetha200 (4), ZenOfThunder, Ranticoot (2), Hbthebattle (2), NowItsAngeTime, spooky96 (4), RoseChevalier, Lopen (2), paulg235 (3), DoctorJimmy133, Janus5k, BT, TsunamiXXVIII, ctesjbuvf (2), MetalmindStats (2))
Kleenex: 33
Monika: 24
Leonhart: 23

final wrap-up post coming soon, ahaha~
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Moltar Status: contest hype
Contest Analysis Crew Archives: http://thecrew.speedrunwiki.com/

Crew Predictions: 127/148

Crew Prediction Challenge:

Monika: 125
transience: 123
Kleenex: 121
Leonhart: 119
Guest: 115

Crew Accuracy Challenge: Leonhart gets the point for Link and Kleenex gets the point for Cloud.

transience: 37
Guest: 34 (BetrayedTangy, SuperNiceDog (4), pjbasis, garetha200 (4), ZenOfThunder, Ranticoot (2), Hbthebattle (2), NowItsAngeTime, spooky96 (4), RoseChevalier, Lopen (2), paulg235 (3), DoctorJimmy133, Janus5k, BT, TsunamiXXVIII, ctesjbuvf (2), MetalmindStats (2))
Kleenex: 33
Monika: 24
Leonhart: 22
---

Moltar Status: contest hype
Contest Analysis Crew Archives: http://thecrew.speedrunwiki.com/

Zelda - 50.60%
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Moltar Status: contest hype
Contest Analysis Crew Archives: http://thecrew.speedrunwiki.com/

Crew Predictions: 126/146

Crew Prediction Challenge:

Monika: 124
transience: 122
Kleenex: 119
Leonhart: 117
Guest: 114

Crew Accuracy Challenge: transience gets the point for Cloud and Mario.

transience: 37
Guest: 34 (BetrayedTangy, SuperNiceDog (4), pjbasis, garetha200 (4), ZenOfThunder, Ranticoot (2), Hbthebattle (2), NowItsAngeTime, spooky96 (4), RoseChevalier, Lopen (2), paulg235 (3), DoctorJimmy133, Janus5k, BT, TsunamiXXVIII, ctesjbuvf (2), MetalmindStats (2))
Kleenex: 32
Monika: 24
Leonhart: 21
---

Moltar Status: contest hype
Contest Analysis Crew Archives: http://thecrew.speedrunwiki.com/

Mario - 53.20%
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Moltar Status: contest hype
Contest Analysis Crew Archives: http://thecrew.speedrunwiki.com/

Link - 60%
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Moltar Status: contest hype
Contest Analysis Crew Archives: http://thecrew.speedrunwiki.com/

Crew Predictions: 124/144

Crew Prediction Challenge:

Monika: 122
transience: 120
Kleenex: 117
Leonhart: 115
Guest: 113

Crew Accuracy Challenge: spooky96 gets the point for Zelda, Monika and Kleenex get the point for Crono, and Kleenex gets the point for Samus.

transience: 35
Guest: 34 (BetrayedTangy, SuperNiceDog (4), pjbasis, garetha200 (4), ZenOfThunder, Ranticoot (2), Hbthebattle (2), NowItsAngeTime, spooky96 (4), RoseChevalier, Lopen (2), paulg235 (3), DoctorJimmy133, Janus5k, BT, TsunamiXXVIII, ctesjbuvf (2), MetalmindStats (2))
Kleenex: 32
Monika: 24
Leonhart: 21
---

Moltar Status: contest hype
Contest Analysis Crew Archives: http://thecrew.speedrunwiki.com/

transiences Analysis

I need a real, honest to god reason to pick Samus over Mario. "Smash Bros" could maybe be it, but probably not? That's practically got Mario's name in the title. "Revenge votes" doesn't seem like a thing after Bowser, Pikachu, etc. Mega was a lot closer to Pikachu than Samus was.

I'm not saying it can't happen, but I don't go against the king without a reason. Zelda at least had her series in her corner. Samus is putting up a Mario-beating performance here, and I'd *love* to see Samus/Zelda, but I can't go all in. Samus needs to prove that she can beat the king who's whipped her for over a decade now.

transience's prediction: Mario with 50.84%

Leonharts Analysis

Samus keeps putting up impressive performances, and it keeps not mattering because she ends up getting thwarted by the hierarchy when she faces Mario. Could she actually run this back and beat Mario? At this point, Samus is probably our only hope for a semi-interesting final. Not to say she can beat Link, but well have already seen Zelda lose to Link once and weve seen Mario get SFFd by Link many times in the past. Plus, it seems like Samus is indirectly our #2 character at this point, and if she can resist getting smashed by Mario like she once did, maybe the same would be true if she faced Link. Do I think any of that will ACTUALLY happen? Probably not, but its pretty much all Ive got left to root for this year, which is a sad commentary in and of itself!

Leonharts Vote: Samus Aran

Leonharts Prediction: Mario with 51.75%

Kleenexs Analysis

We just saw this a few days ago, and Samus got way closer than pretty much anyone expected. Part of me wants to say she could flip things here. Unfortunately, every rematch weve seen so far has told us that the results dont change that much. Mega Man was the only one to reverse things so far, but his original match was close enough for variation to matter. I dont think 52/48 is close enough, despite Samus killing Snake today, who went even with Zelda, who just beat Mario. Because, you know, stats. I do kinda hope my theory that ZSS is better than suited Samus these days is tested, because I think thats the one thing that may give her a shot. Otherwise, expect about what we saw last time these two met.

Kleenexs prediction: Mario with 51%

Guests Analysis - War

As I'm writing this I'm watching Snake do all he can to reach 44% against an opponent that he statistically should beat.

There is a reason this is happening.

No, it is not because the opponent he 'should' beat is actually a lot stronger than him. Even though this is true.

No, it is not because we've seen this before, right down to the hype being due to Sonic and Zelda matches. Even though this is also true.

It is because some princess decided to grab for the title of Queen.

Make no mistake, in these contests there is one Queen.

The Queen would not be jealous over King Harkinian playing badminton with another woman.

The Queen would not fear Ganon, a being so weak that he needs to disguise himself as Impa, and could be defeated by Bagu wielding a thing called the Handy Glove.

The Queen would definitely not go on a date to a bar, only for her man to get pissed off at a Daira spilling booze brewed by his parents.

A princess has reached for something far beyond her status, and there is a phrase appropriate for the occasion.

God Save The Queen.

And May Everyone Else Burn.

Samus with 54%

Crew Consensus: Mario does it again.
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Moltar Status: contest hype
Contest Analysis Crew Archives: http://thecrew.speedrunwiki.com/

Losers Bracket: Round 4 Mario vs. Samus Aran

Monikas Analysis

Mario
Legends Round 1 - 59.25% vs. Sephiroth
Legends Round 2 - 51.42% vs. Samus
Legends Round 3 - 49.09% vs. Zelda

Samus
Legends Round 1 - 58.93% vs. Tifa Lockheart
Legends Round 2 - 48.58% vs. Mario
Losers Round 2 - 58.58% vs. Tifa Lockheart
Losers Round 3 - 56.60% vs. Solid Snake

Samus did a lot better than her first showing against Mario. Since then, weve seen Mario lose to Zelda, and Samus destroy Snake who went even with Zelda. rsff finally confirmed we did it

In terms of the rematches, we havent seen a result flip by more than 1%. I think Samus does a little better this time, but once again the hierarchy (which is now L(ink)oZ(elda) > Mario > rest) keeps her from shattering the glass ceiling.

next contest tho samus > mario indirectly and directly we gonna get there

Monikas Voting Tip of the Day: Hey, what's your favorite color? Mine is emerald green. It's the color of my eyes! ...That's not conceited or anything, is it?

Monikas Prediction of the Day: Mario 51%

...That's my advice for today! Thanks for listening~
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Moltar Status: contest hype
Contest Analysis Crew Archives: http://thecrew.speedrunwiki.com/

dont remember if that's the only other time but that was one case
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Moltar Status: contest hype
Contest Analysis Crew Archives: http://thecrew.speedrunwiki.com/

Sayoriences Analysis

I'm writing this at 10am EST where it looks like Mega Man might win? It really doesn't matter all that much though in terms of this match. We've already seen the Crono match and it'd be really surprising if Mega could close the gap all that much.

I do feel better about Mega Man facing Cloud than Crono, though. There's the real possibility that Cloud had some overlap with Crono, and it would really only go in Cloud's favor. The only major factor here is Smash coming out, and while both Cloud and Mega are in it, the people that it's bringing to the site are going to be largely NIntendo fans and that benefits Mega more than others. I'll throw two predictions out here just in case Crono makes a comeback.

Sayorience's predictions:

Cloud over Mega Man with 52.52%
Cloud over Crono with 57.56%

Leonharts Analysis

As Im writing this, Mega Man and Crono are in a deadlock, so its hard to say which one of them is actually going to win this! Regardless, I dont think itll end up mattering too much in terms of the outcome of this match. Weve already seen Cloud easily dispatch Crono once during this phase of the contest, and unless there was some minor SFF there, the result should be the same (as weve seen in Crono/Bowser and Samus/Tifa) regardless of which one is here.

Leonharts Vote: Cloud Strife

Leonharts Prediction: Cloud Strife with 56.50%

Kleenexs Analysis

Im writing this assuming Mega Man holds on to his slim lead, and given the trends weve seen, he should. So how does Mega Man stack up against Cloud? Probably about the same as Crono. There was likely a little SFF happening in the Cloud/Crono match, so I can potentially see Mega Man holding up a little bit better, but its tough to see him bucking the trend and flipping what should be a 56/44 match. Even with Cloud looking completely pathetic against Link last round, he should be safe here. Next round is where he needs to worry.

(Also if by some miracle Crono is here, please download a browser extension to replace all instances of Mega Man with Crono)

Kleenexs prediction: Cloud with 56%

Guest's Analysis - Hbthebattle

Its pretty clear these guys are about equal, but we know how that ends already. If Mega Man is here, I think hed get a little less SFF and do a little better, but neither can win.

Cloud over Crono with 55.45%

Cloud over MM with 53.67%

Crew Consensus: Cloud cuts down whoever gets here.
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Moltar Status: contest hype
Contest Analysis Crew Archives: http://thecrew.speedrunwiki.com/

Losers Bracket: Round 4 Cloud Strife vs Mega Man/Crono

Monikas Analysis

Cloud
Legends Round 1 - 60.40% vs. Alucard
Legends Round 2 - 56.73% vs. Crono
Legends Round 3 - 39.48% vs. Link

Mega Man
Legends Round 1 - 49.89% vs. Pikachu
Losers Round 1 - 60.03% vs. Ganondorf
Losers Round 2 - 50.67% vs. Pikachu
Losers Round 3 - 50.00% vs. Crono

Crono
Legends Round 1 - 54.88% vs. Bowser
Legends Round 2 - 43.27% vs. Cloud Strife
Losers Round 2 - 54.75% vs. Bowser
Losers Round 3 - 50.00% vs. Mega Man

MM/Crono might be too close to call right now, but neither of them are on the level of Cloud. Cloud had no problem with Crono before, and if Mega Man is equal to him, then we should expect around the same number.

If Cloud did SFF Crono a little, then Mega Man is going to do a little bit better, but I also dont think there was any significant SFF in that match. That means Cloud should have an easy time with whoever gets here.

Monikas Voting Tip of the Day: Sometimes you have to move forward even if you dont know what the outcome is. Dont be afraid to take that step!

Monikas Prediction of the Day: Cloud 56%

...That's my advice for today! Thanks for listening~
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Moltar Status: contest hype
Contest Analysis Crew Archives: http://thecrew.speedrunwiki.com/

Cloud - 56.10%
Mario - 50.80%
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Moltar Status: contest hype
Contest Analysis Crew Archives: http://thecrew.speedrunwiki.com/

Kleenexs Analysis

You could probably make a case for Snake to win this match, but I think youd be wrong. Snake has looked a bit better in loserville than he did in the winners bracket, but Samus has still been way more impressive for my money. Best case scenario for Snake in this match is a 2k6 finals redux. Worst case scenario is for him to look like he might lose to Tifa.

Kleenexs Prediction: Samus with 54%

Guests Analysis - spooky96

I'm seeing the Oracle topic right now and seeing that Samus is the overwhelmingly the favorite for this match, and rightfully so, as Snake, Samus, Cloud, Mario all of them are so close in strength that any slight boost will likely be able enough to win the match. Smash released two days back, and I think this will likely give just enough votes to Samus to get by Snake. Then there's part of me seeing today's match - Mario/Zelda, and I'm thinking Zelda=Snake=Mario and Mario beat Samus quite safely (relatively speaking), so I'm definitely tempted to go for the upset here (picking Snake an upset?). I don't think Mario won over Samus due to some weird SFF thing, this contest hardly had any of that, except maybe the Link-Ganon match and Sephiroth-Tifa match (I still like to believe Sephiroth is naturally stronger, its just that FF7 fans really prefer Tifa now that the website has matured). I'll go with the underdog and pick Snake here, I know the rule says 'whenever in doubt go with Nintendo' and deep down I kinda of know Samus wins here, but Snake does have a legit shot. Going 50-50 with Zelda seems more and more impressive as the contest goes on.

Snake with 50.25%

Crew Consensus: Samus wins in another 3-2 split.
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Moltar Status: contest hype
Contest Analysis Crew Archives: http://thecrew.speedrunwiki.com/

transiences Analysis

The Zelda match really makes Snake look good. She's looking like a possible #2, which is crazy. Snake was within a few votes of her so he could be #3.

There's been a lot of back and forth about Mario, Samus, Tifa and Sephiroth, and I just think I prefer to trust my priors over trying to sort out that tangled web. Sephiroth isn't good this year but I don't think he's below Tifa. I just think the fanbase went with the protagonist over the antagonist there. I don't put a lot of stock in it. SFF seems dead unless you're in the literal same game, and so I think Mario and Samus is just a legit result. I don't really think that hard about it, honestly. Samus has been talked about as this theoretically stronger character since 2004's match with Cloud and she's never been able to put it together. You'll have to prove it to me before I give you the benefit of the doubt.

That said, I'm too invested in the Samus over Snake matchup to pick against Samus. That was my pet pick from the beginning and I'm sticking with it. The winner here vs. Mario and Zelda -- in whatever order -- is going to be really fun. Snake gives us the purest matchup but Samus feels like the underdog trying to right the wrongs of the past. Then again, maybe that's Zelda. Go Samus.

transience's prediction: Samus with 52.67%

Leonharts Analysis

After seeing Snake lose to Zelda right out of the gate, my faith in him was a little shaken, but now shes beating Mario, so my confidence is back! Ive seen people talk about how Samus pulled rank on Snake in 2006, and shed pull rank again if need be, but I dont agree with that. I know Snake vaulted into the top tier because of Smash, but I dont think that means hes suddenly subject to the Nintendo hierarchy. He hasnt really shown any indications of it outside of potentially that match with Samus.

I think what happened against Samus was similar to what happened between Mario and Sephiroth in 2005. Both Samus and Sephiroth underperformed in the last couple matches of the female bracket and the Villains Contest, respectfully. Samus had a good excuse against Tifa, at least, but still, she didnt look good. Yet after Mario and Snake dominated their brackets, they both lost easily in against Seph and Samus, so what caused that? I dont know what it is, but I suppose theres a part of the voter base that feels comfortable voting the other way as long as the other character isnt in danger of losing. Weve seen random overperformances by losing characters in every contest (people would probably point to Ganondorf/Chun-Li or maybe Bowser/2B this year as examples). Yet when they face the big boys (or girls), their strength comes back. I dont understand it, but it seems to happen.

I also think Snake has gotten stronger since 2006. He outperformed Samus against a common opponent in Cloud in 2010, and he outperformed her directly in the 2013 finals. Yes, I know the Draven rallies muddle the numbers, but Snake was already well ahead of Samus even before Hayter got involved. The one thing that gives me pause is the fact that Nintendo is in a better place now than they were in 2013 or even 2010. The Switch is huge and Smash Ultimate literally just released yesterday. That being said, I think Ultimates release could benefit Snake because of the whole EVERYONE IS HERE THING since it was a big surprise that Nintendo brought him back and people were hyped to have him again as a result. Im going to stand by Snake here because hes still our one hope for a finals that isnt completely boring and riddled with SFF. This is his final mission.

Leonharts Vote: Solid Snake

Leonharts Prediction: Solid Snake with 51.15%
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Moltar Status: contest hype
Contest Analysis Crew Archives: http://thecrew.speedrunwiki.com/

Losers Bracket: Round 3 Solid Snake vs. Samus Aran

Monikas Analysis

Snake
Legends Round 1 - 49.68% vs. Zelda
Losers Round 1 - 61.48% vs. Auron
Losers Round 2 - 57.53% vs. Sonic the Hedgehog

Samus
Legends Round 1 - 58.93% vs. Tifa Lockheart
Legends Round 2 - 48.58% vs. Mario
Losers Round 2 - 58.58% vs. Tifa Lockheart

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/2561

Cant talk about this match without bringing this up. Snake was looking unstoppable until Samus...stopped him with ease. Shes got the advantage going into the match simply due to that.

Snake has gotten stronger since then, but Samus is currently benefiting from a very strong Nintendo site shift right now. Thats another point in her favor.

What about Zelda? She beat Snake and Mario, while Samus lost to Mario. Im of the opinion that Zelda is benefiting from a bit of a bandwagon, so the Zelda that beat Snake is a little weaker than current Zelda. You also probably know how I feel about Samus and Mario indirectly as well.

In short, Im still giving Samus the edge here. Like I said in an earlier write-up, until I actually see her losing to someone outside of the top hierarchy guys, Im putting faith in her over everyone else.

Monikas Voting Tip of the Day: Hey, have you heard of a game called Super Sma--...Wait, what? I was just spacing out and I started talking for some reason...

Monikas Prediction of the Day: Samus 52%

...That's my advice for today! Thanks for listening~
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Moltar Status: contest hype
Contest Analysis Crew Archives: http://thecrew.speedrunwiki.com/

Kleenexs Analysis

I can see this match going either way and you can probably make an argument for either character winning. Based on their two matches, we can set Mega Man and Pikachu to being roughly 50/50 - the results were close enough that they could flip back and for depending on which day you ran the match or even what hour the match was started. So given that, where do we put Pikachu on the Nintendo hierarchy? Is the stronger than Bowser? My gut reaction is yes. I think hes looked better in all his indirect matches this year, and I think hed edge out Bowser in a direct match. It would probably be fairly close though. Is it enough to close the the ~55/45 gap we saw between Bowser and Crono? Im not convinced. I think this probably ends up something like 52/48, maybe 51/49 in favor of Crono. If PIkachu was here Id be a lot more worried, I think the novelty of Pikachu beating Crono is more dangerous and might have pushed him over that hump. Im not sure Mega Man has it in him to do that, especially because Mega Man and Crono both have fairly similar trends. Id expect whoever is ahead after the first 30 minutes of this match to win.

Kleenexs Prediction: Crono with 51%

Guest's Analysis - Luster Soldier

This may be the closest we get to having a true coin flip match. It could easily go either way. Mega Man is expected to get 55.41% on Yoshi by going through the MM/Pikachu rematch. Bowser has to get 50.70% or 50.84% Yoshi for Crono to be equal to Mega Man. I could see Bowser getting above that on Yoshi, but Yoshi/Luigi/Bowser have always been very close to each other that it is quite possible Bowser hasn't boosted at all.

Mega Man winning this match would be better just to avoid a Crono/Cloud rematch. Mega Man/Cloud is more interesting as the match has not happened in a 1v1 format. Only a fairly small percentage of registered users would even vote Mega Man to avoid this rematch, but it could be one intangible in Mega Man's favor when the match could be decided by less than 50 votes. Based on general voting trends among registered/anonymous users, I think Mega Man will have the edge with registered users. Mega Man also has better rally potential outside of GameFAQs than Crono. For a late match clutch situation, both characters have shown some clutch ability in the past. Crono activated his clutch to get his revenge on Vincent in 2008 while Mega Man out-clutched Charizard in 2013.

Luster Soldier's Bracket: Cloud Strife

Luster Soldier's Second Chance Bracket: Crono

Luster Soldier's Prediction: Mega Man - 50.09%

Crew Consensus: Mega Man wins in a 3-2 split.
---

Moltar Status: contest hype
Contest Analysis Crew Archives: http://thecrew.speedrunwiki.com/

transiences Analysis

I'm super excited to see this one. It's my two favourite popular characters! Sorry, Samus, you can't match up with these guys. In my mind it's a rematch of a really underrated 2005 match. The Sonic/Mega and Mega/Crono matches were really tight. Both of those matches went as expected but not by much.

There are so many numbers that you can crunch in this one. It's basically Yoshi vs. Bowser though. Crono got 54.88% and 54.72% on Bowser; Pikachu got 54.8% on Yoshi, Mega and Pikachu may as well be equal. I think the consensus is Bowser over Yoshi, and thus Crono over Mega Man. The stats through Cloud and Pikachu show Crono being a couple percentage points above Mega, so unless there's some SFF in the Link/Pikachu match, Crono's probably good for a 53-47 win or so. Everything kinda lines up nicely. Mega and Sonic never feel very far apart and but Sonic's not looked great.

I dunno though. I'm kinda low on Crono. I watched him not really do very well on Cloud who just got embarrassed by Link. It's mostly relative to old performances, to be fair. He's still ahead of Mega by the numbers. With FF7 being so uniformly bad, I'm kinda feeling Mega Man for this one. I guess you could make a case that everyone on the site is playing the new Smash game and Crono's the odd man out. I guess that's convincing, in a way, but this is the worst of trailers where we digest games from afar and don't actually play them. I'm gonna go with Mega Man though. Hopefully Moltar goes the other way because I'm tired of being one point behind him for a month.

transience's prediction: Mega Man with 50.67%

Leonharts Analysis

Honestly, I want Mega Man to win this just to avoid a pointless rematch between Cloud and Crono. The numbers might favor him here, too. Even with the potential for Link/Pikachu SFF, Crono isnt that far ahead of Mega Man in the X-Stats after Link/Cloud. I suppose theres also the possibility that Cloud SFFd Crono a little bit since he did underperform a tad based on Alucard/Bowser. Either way, I cant imagine either character winning by a huge margin, but Mega Man is the only one I could see winning this comfortably (say 53-54%), despite how good that makes Pikachu look (augh). I think if Crono wins, he just narrowly edges him out. As such, Ill hope for the best and side with Mega Man.

Leonharts Vote: Mega Man

Leonharts Prediction: Mega Man with 53.01%
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Moltar Status: contest hype
Contest Analysis Crew Archives: http://thecrew.speedrunwiki.com/

Losers Bracket: Round 3 Mega Man vs. Crono

Monikas Analysis

Mega Man
Legends Round 1 - 49.89% vs. Pikachu
Losers Round 1 - 60.03% vs. Ganondorf
Losers Round 2 - 50.67% vs. Pikachu

Crono
Legends Round 1 - 54.88% vs. Bowser
Legends Round 2 - 43.27% vs. Cloud Strife
Losers Round 2 - 54.75% vs. Bowser

Ive been waffling on this match ever since the first round of the winners bracket. Before it started, I figured Crono would be slightly stronger because CT boosting and everything. I thought I would be more confident after seeing MM essentially be equal with Pikachu, but Crono isnt really lighting the world on fire with average performances on Bowser and a mediocre showing on Cloud.

That said...I think Im still going to stick with Crono here since the numbers are slightly in his favor. 55% on Bowser says a little more to me than 50% on Pikachu.

Monikas Voting Tip of the Day: When in doubt, go with your gut!

Monikas Prediction of the Day: Crono 51%

...That's my advice for today! Thanks for listening~
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Moltar Status: contest hype
Contest Analysis Crew Archives: http://thecrew.speedrunwiki.com/

Crono - 50.60%
Samus - 51.80%
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Moltar Status: contest hype
Contest Analysis Crew Archives: http://thecrew.speedrunwiki.com/

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Mega Man vs. Crono - Luster Soldier
Solid Snake vs. Samus Aran - spooky96

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Crew Predictions: 123/141

Crew Prediction Challenge:

Monika: 120
transience: 119
Kleenex: 115
Leonhart: 114
Guest: 111

Crew Accuracy Challenge: Monika gets the point for Link.

transience: 35
Guest: 33 (BetrayedTangy, SuperNiceDog (4), pjbasis, garetha200 (4), ZenOfThunder, Ranticoot (2), Hbthebattle (2), NowItsAngeTime, spooky96 (3), RoseChevalier, Lopen (2), paulg235 (3), DoctorJimmy133, Janus5k, BT, TsunamiXXVIII, ctesjbuvf (2), MetalmindStats (2))
Kleenex: 30
Monika: 23
Leonhart: 21
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Moltar Status: contest hype
Contest Analysis Crew Archives: http://thecrew.speedrunwiki.com/

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Moltar Status: contest hype
Contest Analysis Crew Archives: http://thecrew.speedrunwiki.com/

Kleenexs Analysis

Stranger things have happened, right? Zelda has looked insane this contest. Completely stomping all over her main bracket division, going even with (and beating) Snake, and then embarrassing Sonic. Does she have a shot here? Probably not. I think Mario likely invokes some HIERARCHY in this match and puts a damper on Zeldas great run this year. The fact that she was only barely able to beat Snake (who Im pretty sure gets thrashed by Mario at this point), makes this a bit too much of a long shot. That being said, Mario did look somewhat vulnerable against Samus last round. Zelda isnt at Samuss level, but who knows. If she gets some momentum behind her after these last few wins, I wouldnt be surprised by anything at this point. Im just not banking on it for the purpose of this writeup.

Kleenexs Prediction: Mario with 54%

Guests Analysis - spooky96

This is an extremely interesting match. Zelda's numbers have been extremely impressive this year - mid 60s on Aerith & Squall and going 50-50 with Snake is one of the biggest boost I've ever seen for any character. While Mario's 59% on Sephiroth is still more impressive, there's no way Mario's having an easy match here and I'm sure no one would be surprised if Zelda managed to beat Mario as well, as pre-contract, and even now, you could argue that Cloud/Snake/Mario are #2 (+Zelda now) on GameFAQs. It has been good to see that the strength gap between all the characters barring Link has been lessened this year. Any match which doesn't involve Link has the potential to be very close from this point on.

Anyway, I don't have a lot of faith in Mario either to be honest, he might have performed fine this year, but Zelda is just something else this contest. As I write this write-up I'm suddunely leaning towards Zelda, hoping that the chicks this year have performed really well this year, plus at least you can rally for Zelda, where are you gonna rally for Mario?

Zelda with 50.20%

Crew Consensus: Mario doesnt rescue this Princess.
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Moltar Status: contest hype
Contest Analysis Crew Archives: http://thecrew.speedrunwiki.com/

transiences Analysis

I'm watching Link annihilate Cloud here, far worse than has ever been done before, and am slowly replaying the entire contest in my head, kind of verifying my assumptions. After all, Link is to Cloud as Zelda is to Squall (or Aeris) now, which kinda makes sense.

Is this a case of Zelda characters being absolutely unreal, or Final Fantasy VII just being even worse than I thought?

My preexisting conception of this contest -- and this goes back to pre-contest -- is that Link is untouchable, Mario and Samus are 2 and 3, and Cloud/Snake/Seph/Crono are a tier below that. Obviously I didn't see Zelda coming but it was tough to see her jumping into the stratosphere.

But what if it's actually worse than that? What if Mario and Samus only look good because Final Fantasy VII sucks? What does it say about Crono that Link can destroy Cloud like this? Maybe Snake can still beat Mario -- and if that's true, what about Zelda? If FF7 sucks and Zelda reigns supreme, maybe we're in for the worst possible timeline.

I can't pick Zelda over Mario. There's too much hierarchy there for my tastes, even though Zelda will always be higher than Mario on the game/series hierarchy. But in the last 24 hours, I've at least acknowledged that it's conceivable that Zelda takes that newfound Zelda power and just goes to town on Mario and we end up with a hilariously pathetic Link/Zelda final. It's possible that Zelda runs into the king of Nintendo and just gets demolished, but more likely she holds up and puts up a pretty respectable performance. This shouldn't be a good match by any metric but I'm super interested to see how it goes and what it means for the rest of the contest.

transience's prediction: Mario with 54.67%

Leonharts Analysis

Heres the next big test for Zelda. Shes passed every one with flying colors thus far, but how will she fare against Mr. Nintendo himself? Mario showed a bit of vulnerability against Samus, which makes me think Zelda will hold up very well here, even if she doesnt win. She might have built up a bandwagon at this point from all these big wins. Its just hard for me to envision Mario outright losing this, but it would sure make Squall and Snake look great if he did! I dont really know how to analyze it beyond this because weve never seen Zelda at this level before and were still not totally sure exactly how strong she is.

Leonharts Vote: Zelda

Leonharts Prediction: Mario with 53.85%
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Moltar Status: contest hype
Contest Analysis Crew Archives: http://thecrew.speedrunwiki.com/

Legends Bracket: Round 3 Zelda vs. Mario

Monikas Analysis

Zelda
Legends Round 1 - 50.32% vs. Solid Snake
Legends Round 2 - 56.45% vs. Sonic the Hedgehog

Mario
Legends Round 1 - 59.25% vs. Sephiroth
Legends Round 2 - 51.42% vs. Samus

This is kind of interesting. Marios looking like a top 3 dude, but the one franchise thats been able to keep Mario in line is Zelda. Like Ive said before, Zelda is no Link, but shes not all that far off from him anymore. Nintendo hierarchy has always been Link > Mario > rest, but Zeldas thrown all sorts of contest traditions out the window this contest so far. She broke the Noble Nine, but can she break the Hierarchy?

I dont think so. I would still take Samus over Zelda, and while Samus came very close, she still could not beat Mario. Zelda also doesnt look indirectly stronger than Mario, as I would take Mario to beat Snake and Sonic by a little bit more than she did.

Zelda wont get SFFed hard here, so she should put up a respectable number.

Monikas Voting Tip of the Day: Okay, everyone! It's time to......I'm just kidding. I just used to really like saying that for some reason. Ahaha!

Monikas Prediction of the Day: Mario 54%

...That's my advice for today! Thanks for listening~
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Moltar Status: contest hype
Contest Analysis Crew Archives: http://thecrew.speedrunwiki.com/

Crew Predictions: 122/140

Crew Prediction Challenge:

Monika: 119
transience: 118
Kleenex: 114
Leonhart: 113
Guest: 110

Crew Accuracy Challenge: transience gets the point for Snake, and Leonhart gets the point for Samus.

transience: 35
Guest: 33 (BetrayedTangy, SuperNiceDog (4), pjbasis, garetha200 (4), ZenOfThunder, Ranticoot (2), Hbthebattle (2), NowItsAngeTime, spooky96 (3), RoseChevalier, Lopen (2), paulg235 (3), DoctorJimmy133, Janus5k, BT, TsunamiXXVIII, ctesjbuvf (2), MetalmindStats (2))
Kleenex: 30
Monika: 22
Leonhart: 21
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Moltar Status: contest hype
Contest Analysis Crew Archives: http://thecrew.speedrunwiki.com/

Mario - 53.70%
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Moltar Status: contest hype
Contest Analysis Crew Archives: http://thecrew.speedrunwiki.com/

good to see link's rival keep it competitive lmao

LeonhartFour posted...

literally Joker in Smash Bros. lawl

ugh first thought was literally "a month too late"
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Moltar Status: contest hype
Contest Analysis Crew Archives: http://thecrew.speedrunwiki.com/

Crew Predictions: 120/138

Crew Prediction Challenge:

Monika: 117
transience: 116
Kleenex: 112
Leonhart: 111
Guest: 108

Crew Accuracy Challenge: transience gets the point for Zelda, MetalmindStats gets the point for Mario, spooky96 gets the point for Mega Man, and Leonhart gets the point for Crono.

transience: 34
Guest: 33 (BetrayedTangy, SuperNiceDog (4), pjbasis, garetha200 (4), ZenOfThunder, Ranticoot (2), Hbthebattle (2), NowItsAngeTime, spooky96 (3), RoseChevalier, Lopen (2), paulg235 (3), DoctorJimmy133, Janus5k, BT, TsunamiXXVIII, ctesjbuvf (2), MetalmindStats (2))
Kleenex: 30
Monika: 22
Leonhart: 20
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Moltar Status: contest hype
Contest Analysis Crew Archives: http://thecrew.speedrunwiki.com/

samus powering up for that mario runback later
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Moltar Status: contest hype
Contest Analysis Crew Archives: http://thecrew.speedrunwiki.com/

Solid Snake - 56.60%
Samus Aran - 59.10%
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Moltar Status: contest hype
Contest Analysis Crew Archives: http://thecrew.speedrunwiki.com/

transiences Analysis

Today might be the worst day yet to be on the Crew. What do you even write here that wasn't written a week ago?

Others seem to have somewhat strong feelings about what a rematch means, but I feel less confident than ever about the future changing. I guess if I had to say anything, it's that Pikachu might be weaker after getting crushed by Link and the new Pokemon game being a week older? Maybe?

Seeing Samus do so well against Mario warms my heart and makes me want to pick Mega Man. I think I would feel best if Smash 5 was out and in people's hands since that's Mega Man's one big chance to shine. Yeah, Mega Man 11 is out but that game is essentially an indie game at this point. Smash 5 lets people explore the heart of Mega Man, one of the greatest character designs ever, and listen to some of that sweet, sweet music. Anyway, I'm picking Pikachu here. Prove me wrong, Mega Man.

transience's prediction: Pikachu with 51.65%

Leonharts Analysis

It feels like we just saw this match! Seriously though, I feel like whoever wins this time will win fairly easily, although Im still not sure which way to lean at this point. I think people are more likely to vote the other way just to get the result to change, but maybe Im wrong. Plus, maybe the fact that Pikachu is coming fresh off of a beatdown at the hands of Link may have taken a little bit of luster off of him. I suppose Ill bank on Mega Man to run it back here.

Leonharts Vote: Mega Man

Leonharts Prediction: Mega Man with 52.05%

Kleenexs Analysis

Well, we finally get to see how the rematches end working. I still wish these guys got shipped to opposite ends of the bracket, but here we are. I think theres a good chance we may see some flips, especially with the close matches. Mega Man is itching for some revenge, and he looked great against Ganondorf (who is a fraud). Pikachu got expectedly stomped by Link, so maybe his fans are deflated? I dunno, but Mega Man is definitely the plucky underdog this time, so I think hes got a good shot to flip this result and at least end the contest with some of his dignity intact.

Kleenexs Prediction: Mega Man with 50%

Guests Analysis - spooky96

Rematch? Zzzzz....So uh, what new data do we have since their previous encounter? For some bizarre odd reason I was expecting Pikachu to break 40% on Link thinking 'Pokemon is the best when it comes to avoiding SFF shenanigans!' Oh boy how wrong was I? That Link vs Pikachu match was one of the most embarrassing result I've ever seen, the rat couldn't even avoid getting doubled in such a late part of the contest, which is a very poor result no matter how you look at it. On the other side we got MM who 60-40'ed sprite Ganon which is an okayish result? As I'm writing this write up I kinda realize how pointless it is to think any further of this match is was so damn ridiculously close that result would literally flip depending on Pikachu or MM's luck that day. We got Pika winning that day, so for no reason at all, I'll believe in Mega Man today.

Mega Man with 50.05%

Crew Consensus: Were still sticking with Mega Man! This time in a 3-2 split.
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Moltar Status: contest hype
Contest Analysis Crew Archives: http://thecrew.speedrunwiki.com/

Losers Bracket: Round 2 Pikachu vs. Mega Man

Monikas Analysis

Pikachu
Legends Round 1 - 50.11% vs. Mega Man
Legends Round 2 - 35.00% vs. Link

Mega Man
Legends Round 1 - 49.89% vs. Pikachu
Losers Round 1 - 60.03% vs. Ganondorf

This contest is so nice to the Crew that it gave us a second chance to try and predict this match correctly! Boy would it look bad if we missed this one twice.

Of the matches today, this is definitely the one that is more likely to flip. Only 62 votes separated them last time, and that definitely can change a week later.

Im going to say that the same result holds.

Monikas Voting Tip of the Day: Losers Elite Eight? More like Endless Eight!

Monikas Prediction of the Day: Pikachu 50%

...That's my advice for today! Thanks for listening~
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Moltar Status: contest hype
Contest Analysis Crew Archives: http://thecrew.speedrunwiki.com/

Pikachu - 50.10%
Crono - 54.40%

Link - 58.50%
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Moltar Status: contest hype
Contest Analysis Crew Archives: http://thecrew.speedrunwiki.com/

Crew Predictions: 116/134

Crew Prediction Challenge:

Monika: 114
transience: 113
Kleenex: 108
Leonhart: 107
Guest: 104

Crew Accuracy Challenge: Leonhart gets the point for Link and ctesjbuvf gets the point for Cloud.

transience: 33
Guest: 31 (BetrayedTangy, SuperNiceDog (4), pjbasis, garetha200 (4), ZenOfThunder, Ranticoot (2), Hbthebattle (2), NowItsAngeTime, spooky96 (2), RoseChevalier, Lopen (2), paulg235 (3), DoctorJimmy133, Janus5k, BT, TsunamiXXVIII, ctesjbuvf (2), MetalmindStats)
Kleenex: 30
Monika: 22
Leonhart: 19
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Moltar Status: contest hype
Contest Analysis Crew Archives: http://thecrew.speedrunwiki.com/

maybe if no one takes the rematches i'll just use the guest write-ups from before...
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Moltar Status: contest hype
Contest Analysis Crew Archives: http://thecrew.speedrunwiki.com/

it's like we're really playing doki doki analysis crew
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Moltar Status: contest hype
Contest Analysis Crew Archives: http://thecrew.speedrunwiki.com/

Moltars Bracket Says: Samus will win.

Moltars Prediction is: Mario: 49% - Samus: 51%

almost 13 years ahead of the curve

getting closer to vindication
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Moltar Status: contest hype
Contest Analysis Crew Archives: http://thecrew.speedrunwiki.com/

Zelda with 57.70%
Mario with 59.50%
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Moltar Status: contest hype
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yes
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Moltar Status: contest hype
Contest Analysis Crew Archives: http://thecrew.speedrunwiki.com/

Crew Predictions: 114/132

Crew Prediction Challenge:

Monika: 112
transience: 111
Kleenex: 106
Leonhart: 105
Guest: 102

Crew Accuracy Challenge: transience gets the point for Snake.

transience: 33
Kleenex: 30
Guest: 30 (BetrayedTangy, SuperNiceDog (4), pjbasis, garetha200 (4), ZenOfThunder, Ranticoot (2), Hbthebattle (2), NowItsAngeTime, spooky96 (2), RoseChevalier, Lopen (2), paulg235 (3), DoctorJimmy133, Janus5k, BT, TsunamiXXVIII, ctesjbuvf, MetalmindStats)
Monika: 22
Leonhart: 18
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Moltar Status: contest hype
Contest Analysis Crew Archives: http://thecrew.speedrunwiki.com/

Link - 62.60%
Cloud Strife - 53.50%
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Moltar Status: contest hype
Contest Analysis Crew Archives: http://thecrew.speedrunwiki.com/

Kleenexs Analysis

I wish I was seeing the result of Alucard/Bowser before I wrote this so I could avoid looking like a complete moron, but lets be real, I was going to make this pick anyway. Im all in on the Crono resurgence tour. He looked pretty good against Bowser (imo) and if there was ever a chance for him to upend the hierarchy, its this year. Magus and Frog both looked better than they have in years, so I think whatever juice Chrono Trigger was on back in 2015 is still kind of lingering. Lets go Crono! Its time to change the future once and for all!

Kleenexs Prediction: Crono with 51%

Guests Analysis - ctesjbuvf

I'm a bit sad Crono ran into Cloud specifically. I really think Crono has boosted from the low point he has hit in recent years, however, Cloud is probably the NN'er he has the smallest chance to prove that against, because he's gonna face SFF and likely get the shortend of it. Frog and Magus looked good at it makes sense that with Chrono Trigger boosting, so would its characters, although not as much.

So yeah, I don't think Crono can pull it off, but hopefully he gets to impress a bit in the losers bracket. Cloud will probably make Alucard look better than he is here, but it can't be helped.

Cloud Strife - 58.14%
Crono 41.86%

Crew Consensus: C_o__ > C_o__
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Moltar Status: contest hype
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transiences Analysis

For the majority of the bracketmaking period -- the first one -- I had Crono over Cloud. My thinking going into this contest was that Final Fantasy VII was going to suck in this double vote environment based on how godawful its early vote is every time. Crono was coming off of a super CT run and that game is so far up gamefaqs's alley that Crono could run it up. Also, I took CT to the finals of the last game contest which was probably my best pick ever until SSBM rallying killed it. Man, I'm still sore over that. Only three matches have ever really made me mad, and that's the only one without Mario in it (and he still sorta is. screw you, Mario!)

I don't think the second part of that equation is correct this year. Crono beat Bowser but it wasn't like when CT beat FFX. It wasn't convincing. It was just like always - Crono did well enough and nothing more. You need more than that to beat Cloud. I think Crono is probably closer to Sonic than Snake, Zelda, etc.

But I do think that first part was correct. I'm looking at Snake's result vs. Auron line right up with Squall, Vincent, Tidus, etc. Sephiroth's performance was laugh out loud bad against Tifa, who has been the only one to buck the FF7 trend for whatever reason. Cloud's okay, I guess.. his Alucard performance suggests a clear 55/45 result here vs. Crono. But after watching a same fanbase match where the almighty Sephiroth looks more like Magus, I'm not especially expecting a lot.

That same fanbase thing keeps coming back to me - there are lots of people who know Cloud but not Crono, but not many who play CT without having any familiarity with FF7. Cloud's got that Smash Bros. edge now too. I could see Crono getting the best of Cloud in a year where CT looks great, but I'm not seeing Magus and Frog in that light this year. I think Cloud wins this fairly handily, and if there's any overlap going on here, it probably makes Cloud look really good leading up to his beatdown from Link.

transience's prediction: Cloud with 59.55%

Leonharts Analysis

Heres the first real test of the X-Stats in this double elimination format. Thanks to Bowser and Alucard facing each other after losing to Crono and Cloud, we can project the numbers out to a 55% win here for Cloud. Honestly, that sounds about right to me anyway, even if we didnt have the X-Stats to bolster the argument. I suppose its possible that Cloud SFFs Crono, but Chrono Trigger has generally held up well against Final Fantasy VII in the past (including Vincent/Magus this year), so I dont think thatll happen. What seems more likely to happen is that Crono wins for no discernible reason because the voters seem bent on causing chaos this year (and Im all for it!).

Leonharts Vote: Cloud Strife

Leonharts Prediction: Cloud Strife with 54.99%
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Moltar Status: contest hype
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Legends Bracket: Round 2 Cloud Strife vs. Crono

Monikas Analysis

Cloud
Legends Round 1 - 60.40% vs. Alucard

Crono
Legends Round 1 - 54.88% vs. Bowser

I think my opinion of Cloud has flipped like five times already. 60% on Alucard didnt seem all that great to me, but after seeing Alucard hold Bowser to 51%, who in turn got 45% on Crono, that 60% is looking a lot better. Cloud may not be one of the top Noble Nine guys anymore, but it still seems like he might be in the middle of the pack at least.

Crono, even with a potential CT boost, is at best on Clouds level. Its far more likely hes a little weaker though, and just from going off the numbers weve seen so far from the Legends and Losers bracket, Crono didnt do anything to make me think hes stronger than Cloud.

Now after all the craziness weve seen so far, especially from FF7, you cant count Crono out here. Seeing Tifa change up the FF7 hierarchy had me shook. Now this will be a test of the entire Square hierarchy, and well see if CT has dethroned FF7. With Vincent/Magus earlier, Magus came very close to winning that match, so I dont think Cloud is going to significantly SFF Crono or make him look bad here.

Just like with Vincent/Magus though, Im seeing the traditional hierarchy hold strong here.

Monikas Voting Tip of the Day: Maybe I should try out the spiky hair with a sword look. I think I could pull it off, ahaha!

Monikas Prediction of the Day: Cloud 53%

...That's my advice for today! Thanks for listening~
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Moltar Status: contest hype
Contest Analysis Crew Archives: http://thecrew.speedrunwiki.com/

Half on Pikachu
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Moltar Status: contest hype
Contest Analysis Crew Archives: http://thecrew.speedrunwiki.com/